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Overview

OverviewThe flagship learning arc.ConceptsCore measures, terms, and mechanisms.PolicyFiscal, monetary, and transmission routes.

Debate and context

SchoolsCompeting macro traditions.CompareLine up schools and assumptions.HistoryHow the field evolved.

Work with it

ModelsEmpirical, structural, and theoretical routes.GlossaryFast definitions while you learn.

Tracked categories

All libraryThe full tracked working set.GrowthOpen this indicator lane.Prices & InflationOpen this indicator lane.Labor MarketOpen this indicator lane.Monetary & Financial ConditionsOpen this indicator lane.Nowcasting & Leading IndicatorsOpen this indicator lane.

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Starter setCurated core series first.Global trackedCommitted non-U.S. public slice.Source searchSearch deeper provider catalogs.API & dataPublic routes, export, and docs.

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PurposeWhat the product is and why it exists.Sources & disclosuresPublic-data context and notices.PoliciesPrivacy, terms, ethics, accessibility.ContactReach out or verify research profiles.

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Search across indicators, dashboards, news, glossary terms, and route-level platform surfaces from one place.

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Search the tracked library, glossary, news, dashboards, and route help from one place, then branch into source-backed series only when the public route is too narrow.

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Fixed Investment

Growthfredfallback

Real private fixed investment in equipment, structures, and intellectual property.

Industrial Production

Growthfredfallback

Factory, mining, and utility output index from FRED.

Real GDI

Growthfredfallback

Inflation-adjusted gross domestic income for the U.S. economy.

Real GDP

Growthbeafallback

Inflation-adjusted output across the U.S. economy from the BEA NIPA tables.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Growthfredfallback

Real consumer spending through FRED, useful for tracking demand breadth.

Core CPI

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

Consumer prices excluding food and energy through FRED.

Core PCE Inflation

Prices & Inflationbeafallback

Core PCE price index from the BEA personal consumption expenditures tables.

Headline CPI

Prices & Inflationblsfallback

Headline consumer price index for all urban consumers from the BLS CPI release.

Headline PCE Inflation

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

Headline personal consumption expenditures price index.

PPI Final Demand

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

Producer price index for final demand.

Initial Claims

Labor Marketfredfallback

Weekly initial unemployment insurance claims.

Job Openings

Labor Marketfredfallback

Total nonfarm job openings through FRED.

Labor Force Participation Rate

Labor Marketfredfallback

Civilian labor force participation rate through FRED.

Nonfarm Payrolls

Labor Marketblsfallback

Total nonfarm payroll employment from the BLS establishment survey.

Unemployment Rate

Labor Marketblsfallback

Civilian unemployment rate from the BLS household survey.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Monetary & Financial Conditionsh10fallback

Ten-year Treasury constant maturity yield from the Federal Reserve Board H.15 release.

2-Year Treasury Yield

Monetary & Financial Conditionsh10fallback

Two-year Treasury constant maturity yield from the Federal Reserve Board H.15 release.

10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread

Monetary & Financial Conditionsh10fallback

10-year minus 2-year Treasury constant maturity spread derived from direct Federal Reserve Board H.15 yields.

3-Month T-Bill

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

Three-month Treasury bill secondary-market rate.

Federal Funds Rate

Monetary & Financial Conditionsh10fallback

Monthly average effective federal funds rate from the Federal Reserve Board H.15 release.

M2 Money Stock

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

Seasonally adjusted M2 money stock.

Building Permits

Growthfredfallback

Privately owned housing permits from FRED.

Housing Starts

Growthfredfallback

New privately owned housing starts from FRED.

Retail Sales

Growthcensusfallback

Monthly retail and food services sales from the Census Bureau MRTS program.

Construction Spending

Growthcensusfallback

Value of construction put in place from the Census Bureau construction spending release.

Business Applications

Nowcasting & Leading Indicatorscensusfallback

Business formation applications from the Census Bureau BFS release.

GDP Growth Rate - China

Growthworldbankfallback

Annual real GDP growth for China from the World Bank indicator catalog.

Inflation, CPI - Japan

Prices & Inflationworldbankfallback

Annual CPI inflation for Japan from the World Bank indicator catalog.

Unemployment Rate - South Africa

Labor Marketworldbankfallback

Annual unemployment rate for South Africa from the World Bank indicator catalog.

Government Debt - Brazil

Monetary & Financial Conditionsworldbankfallback

General government debt for Brazil from the World Bank indicator catalog.

Current Account Balance - Mexico

Monetary & Financial Conditionsworldbankfallback

Current account balance for Mexico from the World Bank indicator catalog.

Population - Nigeria

Nowcasting & Leading Indicatorsworldbankfallback

Total population for Nigeria from the World Bank indicator catalog.

Real GDP Growth - Euro Area

Growthimffallback

Quarterly real GDP growth proxy for the euro area seeded from the IMF catalog fallback.

Capacity Utilization

Growthfredfallback

Industrial capacity utilization rate from FRED.

Existing Home Sales

Growthfredfallback

Existing home sales in the United States through FRED.

New Home Sales

Growthfredfallback

New one-family houses sold in the United States through FRED.

Durable Goods Orders

Growthfredfallback

Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods via FRED.

Real Disposable Personal Income

Growthfredfallback

Inflation-adjusted disposable income through FRED.

PPI Commodities

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

Producer price index for commodities through FRED.

Import Price Index

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

BLS import price index for all commodities through FRED.

Export Price Index

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

BLS export price index for all commodities through FRED.

5Y Breakeven Inflation

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

Five-year market-based inflation compensation via FRED.

10Y Breakeven Inflation

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

Ten-year market-based inflation compensation via FRED.

Employment-Population Ratio

Labor Marketfredfallback

Share of the civilian population employed through FRED.

Average Hourly Earnings

Labor Marketfredfallback

Average hourly earnings of total private employees through FRED.

Quits Rate

Labor Marketfredfallback

Quits as a share of employment through FRED.

BAA Corporate Yield

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

Moody's seasoned BAA corporate bond yield through FRED.

AAA Corporate Yield

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

Moody's seasoned AAA corporate bond yield through FRED.

Broad Dollar Index

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

Trade-weighted broad U.S. dollar index through FRED.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

CBOE Volatility Index through FRED.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Nowcasting & Leading Indicatorsfredfallback

Broad activity index from the Chicago Fed via FRED.

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Nowcasting & Leading Indicatorsfredfallback

Real-time Sahm Rule recession indicator through FRED.

Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales

Nowcasting & Leading Indicatorsfredfallback

Real manufacturing and trade sales through FRED.

U.S. Budget Balance

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

Monthly federal surplus or deficit carried through a stable FRED feed.

WTI Crude Oil Spot Price

Prices & Inflationfredfallback

WTI crude oil spot price through FRED for inflation and commodity context.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Monetary & Financial Conditionspolygonfallback

S&P 500 ETF proxy used as a market overlay and risk appetite check.

Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)

Monetary & Financial Conditionspolygonfallback

Nasdaq-100 ETF proxy used as a growth-and-risk market overlay.

20-Year and Longer Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Monetary & Financial Conditionspolygonfallback

Long-duration Treasury ETF proxy for duration and rate expectations.

High Yield Credit Index Proxy (HYG)

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

ICE BofA U.S. high yield total return index used as a stable live proxy for HYG-style credit-risk exposure.

Gold Market Index Proxy (GLD)

Monetary & Financial Conditionsfredfallback

Nasdaq gold price index used as a stable live proxy for GLD-style gold market exposure.

Macro

Use macro when one indicator is not enough and you need context, mechanism, or a model.

Indicators Explorer

Search tracked indicators and connected-source series from one explorer.

Alerts

Watch upcoming watched releases and matched macro stories in one lane.

Account

Your account home for boards, watchlists, sync state, and account-backed access.

Macro Concepts

Start with the core measures of macroeconomics: output, unemployment, prices, and money supply.

Macro Schools

Browse the major macro schools of thought when the disagreement itself is the thing you need to compare.

Compare Schools and Models

Hold macro schools and model routes side by side so the disagreement stays visible while you decide what to read or run next.

Macroeconomic Policy

Open the policy lane when the question is what policymakers can do, through which channel, and with what trade-offs.

About Macro by Mark

A short account of the platform, its scope, and the data foundation it rests on.

Privacy Policy

How Macro by Mark handles browser storage, account-backed sync, and operational telemetry.

Terms of Use

The baseline rules, no-advice framing, and service limits for using the product.

Ethics & Compliance

The source-transparency, no-endorsement, and model-restraint guardrails behind the product.

Accessibility Statement

The accessibility posture, current limitations, and reporting path for the public product.

Aggregate demand

The total demand for goods and services in the economy at a given overall price level.

Aggregate supply

The total amount of goods and services firms are willing to produce at a given overall price level.

Business cycle

The recurring pattern of expansion, slowdown, recession, and recovery in overall economic activity.

Expansion

A phase of the cycle when output, income, and employment are generally rising.

Hard landing

A sharp slowdown or recession that follows a tightening cycle or other macro adjustment.

Long run

The horizon where capacity, productivity, demographics, and institutions matter more than short-run frictions.

Macroeconomics

The study of economy-wide output, inflation, employment, finance, policy, and how shocks move through them together.

Nominal variable

A variable measured in current prices, without adjusting for inflation.

Output gap

The difference between actual output and an estimate of potential output.

Potential output

The level of output the economy can sustain without persistent inflation pressure.

Real economy

Production, spending, hiring, income, and capacity outside the narrower financial-market layer.

Real variable

A variable adjusted for inflation so it reflects quantities or purchasing power more clearly.

Recession

A broad decline in economic activity that usually shows up in output, employment, income, and spending.

Shock

A change in conditions, policy, expectations, or prices that pushes the economy away from its prior path.

Short run

The horizon where adjustment frictions, policy timing, and demand conditions can move the economy away from its longer-run path.

Soft landing

A slowdown that cools inflation or excess demand without tipping the economy into a deep recession.

Transmission

The chain through which a shock or policy move spreads into output, prices, jobs, credit, and expectations.

Business applications

New business filings that can act as an early read on entrepreneurial activity and future business formation.

Capacity utilization

The share of productive capacity currently being used, often watched as a pressure or slowdown signal.

Capital accumulation

The process of building up machines, structures, software, and other productive assets over time.

Capital deepening

Growth in capital per worker, which can raise labor productivity and output.

Construction spending

Spending on private and public construction projects, often used as a read on building activity and demand.

Consumer sentiment

A survey-based read on how households feel about current conditions and the outlook.

Consumption

Household spending on goods and services.

Final demand

Spending that goes to final users rather than into inventories or intermediate production.

Gross domestic income (GDI)

Income earned from production, including wages, profits, rent, and taxes less subsidies.

Gross domestic product (GDP)

The total value of goods and services produced within a country over a period of time.

Housing starts

The count of new privately owned housing units that begin construction, often used as a cyclical housing read.

Industrial production

An index tracking output in manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Inventory cycle

The part of the business cycle shaped by stock-building and stock-drawdown decisions by firms.

Investment

Spending on productive capital, structures, equipment, software, or inventories.

Leading indicator

A series that tends to move ahead of the broader economy and can hint at a coming turn in the cycle.

National accounts

The accounting framework that organizes GDP, income, spending, saving, and related macro aggregates.

Net exports

Exports minus imports, the external demand contribution inside GDP.

Nominal GDP

GDP measured at current prices, before adjusting for inflation.

Potential growth

The economy's longer-run growth pace once temporary cyclical forces are stripped away.

Productivity

How much output can be produced from a given mix of labor, capital, and know-how.

Real GDP

GDP adjusted for inflation so it tracks changes in real output more clearly.

Retail sales

A measure of spending at retail businesses, often used as a timely read on household demand.

Total factor productivity

The part of output growth not directly explained by measured labor and capital inputs.

Trend growth

The slower-moving pace of expansion consistent with longer-run productivity and labor-force fundamentals.

Breakeven inflation

A market-implied inflation measure inferred from the gap between nominal Treasury yields and inflation-protected yields.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A BLS price index tracking the cost of a fixed basket of consumer goods and services.

Core inflation

An inflation measure that strips out more volatile components to show the underlying trend.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE)

The Federal Reserve's preferred broad core inflation measure, built from the PCE price index excluding food and energy.

Deflation

An outright decline in the general price level.

Demand-pull inflation

Inflation pressure that emerges when demand runs ahead of the economy's ability to supply goods and services.

Disinflation

A slowdown in the rate of inflation, not outright falling prices.

Headline inflation

Inflation measured using the full price index, including volatile categories such as food and energy.

Inflation

A sustained rise in the overall price level.

Inflation expectations

What households, firms, and markets think future inflation will be, which can influence current pricing and wage setting.

Nominal rigidities

Slow adjustment in prices or wages that lets shocks have real short-run effects.

Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE)

A BEA price index built from household consumption in the national accounts, with weights that change over time.

Phillips curve

A framework linking inflation pressure to slack, labor-market tightness, or the output gap.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

A BLS price index tracking prices received by producers.

Relative price shock

A price move concentrated in one part of the economy, such as energy, food, or shipping, rather than a broad inflation shift.

Stagflation

A period when inflation stays elevated while growth weakens and labor-market conditions soften.

Supply shock

A disruption to production costs, availability, or capacity that changes prices and output together.

Average hourly earnings

A widely watched wage measure from the monthly employment report.

Employment-population ratio

The share of the population that is employed.

Hours worked

A labor input measure that can move before or alongside payroll counts.

Initial claims

New filings for unemployment insurance. Weekly, so it moves faster than most labor data.

Job openings

Available positions firms are actively trying to fill, often read as a labor-demand signal.

Labor demand

The willingness of firms to hire workers at current wages and expected sales conditions.

Labor force participation rate

The share of the population that is working or actively looking for work.

NAIRU

An estimate of the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation.

Nonfarm payrolls

The monthly count of jobs on employer payrolls outside the farm sector.

Quits rate

The share of workers voluntarily leaving jobs, often used as a read on labor-market confidence and tightness.

Slack

Unused capacity in the labor market, such as unemployment, underemployment, or weak participation.

Underemployment

Workers employed less than they want, or in positions that do not fully use their labor.

Unemployment rate

The share of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking work.

Vacancies

Open roles firms are trying to fill.

Wage growth

The pace at which wages are rising over time.

Balance sheet

The stock of assets, liabilities, and net worth that shapes how exposed a borrower, lender, firm, or household is to stress.

Budget balance

The gap between government revenue and spending over a period, often discussed as a deficit or surplus.

Collateral

Assets pledged against borrowing; when collateral values fall, financing can tighten quickly.

Countercyclical policy

Policy that leans against the cycle by supporting activity in downturns or cooling it in booms.

Credit spread

The extra yield investors demand for bearing default or funding risk over a safer benchmark.

Crowding out

A decline in private spending or investment associated with stronger government borrowing or demand pressure.

Exchange rate

The price of one currency in terms of another currency.

Federal funds rate

The overnight policy rate targeted by the Federal Reserve.

Financial conditions

A broad read on rates, spreads, asset prices, lending conditions, and risk appetite.

Fiscal multiplier

The amount total output changes after government spending or taxes change.

Fiscal policy

Government spending and taxation decisions that affect demand, incentives, and public borrowing.

Forward guidance

Central-bank communication about the future path of policy meant to influence current financial conditions.

Leverage

The extent to which borrowing finances assets or spending.

Liquidity

How easily assets can be traded or financing can be obtained without large price disruption.

Monetary policy

Central-bank actions that influence interest rates, financial conditions, and the broader economy.

Risk appetite

The willingness of investors or lenders to take on risk.

Taylor rule

A simple policy rule that links the interest-rate response to inflation and the output gap.

Term premium

The extra yield investors require for holding longer-term bonds over expected short rates.

Yield curve

The relationship between interest rates and maturity across Treasury securities.

Annualization

Converting a monthly or quarterly pace into an annual rate so it is easier to compare with other annualized series.

Base year

The reference year used to anchor an index or real-value calculation.

Frequency

How often a series is observed, such as daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annual.

Index level

A normalized level series built around a chosen base period rather than a direct dollar or quantity level.

Month over month

The change from one month to the next.

Observation

One dated value inside a time series.

Quarter over quarter annualized

The quarterly change expressed at an annual rate.

Release calendar

A schedule of upcoming economic releases and events.

Release date

The scheduled publication date and time for an economic release.

Release window

The period around a scheduled release when the timing of fresh data matters most for interpretation and nowcasting.

Revision

A change to previously published data after new information or updated methods arrive.

Seasonal adjustment

A statistical adjustment that removes regular calendar patterns so the underlying trend is easier to see.

Seasonally adjusted annual rate

A seasonally adjusted flow or pace expressed as if that rate continued for a full year.

Series

A sequence of observations over time for one variable.

Vintage

A snapshot of what the data looked like at a particular point in time, including the revisions known then.

Year over year

The change from the same period one year earlier.

Agent-based model

A simulation built from many interacting agents whose local rules generate macro outcomes.

ARIMA

A time-series forecasting family built around autoregressive, differencing, and moving-average components.

Baseline forecast

A central forecast path built from current data and model assumptions before extra scenarios are applied.

Benchmark model

A simple comparison model used to judge whether a more complex model is actually adding value.

Calibration

Setting model parameters to reference values or stylized facts rather than estimating every one directly from data.

Cointegration

A long-run relationship that ties nonstationary series together even when they move separately in the short run.

Counterfactual

A model-based path showing what the economy might have looked like under different shocks, rules, or assumptions.

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium

A structural macro model with explicit behavior, equilibrium conditions, shocks, and policy rules.

Error, trend, seasonality (ETS)

A forecasting family that models level, trend, and seasonal structure directly.

Holdout sample

A period kept out of the fit so forecast performance can be checked on data the model did not train on.

Impulse response

The path a model variable follows after a particular shock.

Interacting-series forecast

A forecast built from a small system of variables that move together and help explain one another.

Markov switching

A regime model that allows the economy to move between different states with transition probabilities.

New Keynesian model

A DSGE family that brings sticky prices, policy rules, and expectations into one structural system.

Nowcasting

Estimating the current state of the economy before official releases are complete.

Observable pack

A curated set of indicators admitted into a model because each series carries a clear role in the structural or empirical read.

One-series forecast

A forecast built around one target series, its own history, and direct benchmarks.

Prior

A parameter belief or reference distribution specified before the estimation step updates it with data.

Probit

A probability model often used for recession-risk or state-transition classification.

Real business cycle model

A DSGE benchmark that emphasizes real shocks, flexible prices, and intertemporal adjustment.

Regime shift

A change in the underlying behavior of the economy or series, such as moving from expansion to recession.

Scenario

An explicit alternative path created by changing assumptions, shocks, or policy settings.

State shift

A move into a different macro state, such as a recession-risk regime or a more persistent inflation regime.

Steady state

The reference equilibrium or benchmark level around which many macro models are organized.

Vector autoregression

A multivariate forecasting model in which each variable depends on its own past and the past of the other variables.

Vector error correction model

A multivariate model for cointegrated series that keeps short-run changes tied to a long-run equilibrium.

Dashboard

A saved board that brings chosen indicators and widgets into one recurring monitoring view.

Live Source Search

The search layer that reaches beyond the Local Library into connected provider universes such as FRED.

Local Library

The curated indicator layer already inside the project and available for fast repeat use.

Local Persistence

Browser-based saving for dashboards and certain workflow state, without account sync.

Macro History

The route that ties turning points, debates, and episodes to the macro path over time.

Macro route

The top-level macro route that gathers the main lenses, questions, and system views into one entry page.

Macro Theme

A news grouping organized around one macro question or narrative tension rather than a simple feed order.

Model Workspace

A route where a model is configured, run, and interpreted inside one page or lab.

Quick Start

A prebuilt dashboard starting point that can be opened and then adapted to a specific question.

Saved selection

A saved provider selection that can be reviewed later before it is added to the tracked library.

Template

A dashboard layout structure with slot rules that shape which widget types and indicator combinations fit cleanly.

Tracked library

The checked-in library of indicator definitions that have passed review and are available on the site.

Widget

A dashboard block such as a headline metric, time-series chart, comparison tile, or table.

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The U.S. statistical agency responsible for GDP, income, spending, and many national accounts measures.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

The U.S. statistical agency responsible for CPI, payrolls, unemployment, producer prices, and related labor-market data.

Census Bureau

The U.S. statistical agency that publishes data on population, housing, construction, retail trade, and business formation, among other topics.

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The U.S. agency that publishes official energy production, consumption, and pricing data.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

The Federal Reserve committee that sets the broad stance of U.S. monetary policy.

Federal Reserve

The U.S. central bank system responsible for monetary policy, financial stability, and related economic data releases.

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

A St. Louis Fed service that organizes economic time series and release metadata from many public sources.

FRED API

The application interface that allows software to search FRED series, release dates, and observations programmatically.

H.10

The Federal Reserve's statistical release for foreign exchange rates and selected international interest rates.

Treasury

The U.S. Treasury Department and its related yield, debt, and financing data releases used across macro and market work.

Growth is cooling, but domestic demand still looks resilient.

Consumer demand and business investment are offsetting a slower goods cycle. Watch inventory normalization and services momentum.

Disinflation is intact, but services and shelter are holding it back.

Shelter is easing slowly while services inflation still demands patience. Baseline forecasts keep inflation sticky before softening further.

Payroll growth is cooling without a broad labor break yet.

Hiring is slower and job openings are lower, but layoffs remain contained enough to keep the labor slowdown orderly.

The Fed can be patient while activity slows only gradually.

A slower but still positive growth path gives policymakers room to wait for cleaner inflation progress before easing.

Equity breadth has improved even as leadership stays narrow.

Mega-cap leadership remains strong, but cyclical participation is broadening enough to matter for macro-sensitive portfolios.

Rates are doing more of the macro tightening work now.

With policy on hold, the long end and credit spreads are the better real-time read on financial conditions.

Fiscal headlines matter when the growth cycle is already decelerating.

Policy timing, alongside policy size, is becoming a first-order variable for growth and inflation comparisons.

Consumer demand is rotating from goods toward services again.

Goods demand has cooled from its earlier surge, but services and travel spending are still keeping household demand alive.

Housing turnover is still constrained by rates, not by a lack of demand.

Affordability is doing most of the restraining, while low existing-home supply continues to distort the market signal.

Factory surveys are stabilizing ahead of the hard data.

Sentiment is improving faster than the hard production cycle, which is typical near the later stage of an industrial slowdown.

Trade is softer, but not yet a decisive drag on the domestic cycle.

Imports have cooled with goods demand, while exports are doing just enough to prevent trade from becoming a larger growth headwind.

Global disinflation is broadening, but growth is diverging across regions.

Goods disinflation is more synchronized than growth, leaving cross-country comparisons dominated by domestic demand and policy mix.

Credit spreads still look too calm for a full-blown growth scare.

Risk markets are not yet pricing the kind of deterioration that would usually accompany a real macro break.

Core services inflation is still sticky.

Goods prices are no longer the central problem. Services ex-housing and wage-sensitive categories still matter more for policy.

Initial claims are drifting higher, but not signaling a labor-market break.

Claims are useful because they move earlier than unemployment, but the current rise still looks more like cooling than stress.

Productivity is still helping margins absorb slower nominal growth.

A decent productivity backdrop gives firms more room to absorb wage pressure without an immediate profit squeeze.

A strong dollar is tightening global financial conditions even as U.S. demand holds.

Dollar strength is still one of the cleaner cross-asset signals for global financial conditions and trade sensitivity.

Permits are stabilizing faster than housing starts.

The pipeline looks less weak than the immediate construction read, which keeps housing from becoming a one-way drag story.

Goods data is still soft, and inventory normalization explains most of it.

The drag from inventory adjustment is fading, but it has not fully cleared the system yet across manufacturing and trade.

Treasury supply still matters because term premium is no longer pinned near zero.

In a higher-rate regime, issuance and duration absorption can move yields even without a fresh growth surprise.

Selection

Growth

Fixed Investment

Real private fixed investment in equipment, structures, and intellectual property.

GrowthFREDFALLBACK

Route/indicators/fixed-investment

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U.S. macro data with release timing, boards, and macro context.

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