Glossary
Macro terms, data terms, and platform terms in one place
Search matches term names, aliases, categories, and definitions.
Platform-specific workflow terms are marked separately from standard macro vocabulary.
Macro foundations
The study of economy-wide output, inflation, employment, finance, policy, and how shocks move through them together.
A variable measured in current prices, without adjusting for inflation.
The level of output the economy can sustain without persistent inflation pressure.
A variable adjusted for inflation so it reflects quantities or purchasing power more clearly.
A slowdown that cools inflation or excess demand without tipping the economy into a deep recession.
Growth and output
GDP measured at current prices, before adjusting for inflation.
GDP adjusted for inflation so it tracks changes in real output more clearly.
Prices and inflation
A market-implied inflation measure inferred from the gap between nominal Treasury yields and inflation-protected yields.
A BLS price index tracking the cost of a fixed basket of consumer goods and services.
An inflation measure that strips out more volatile components to show the underlying trend.
The Federal Reserve's preferred broad core inflation measure, built from the PCE price index excluding food and energy.
An outright decline in the general price level.
Inflation pressure that emerges when demand runs ahead of the economy's ability to supply goods and services.
A slowdown in the rate of inflation, not outright falling prices.
Inflation measured using the full price index, including volatile categories such as food and energy.
A sustained rise in the overall price level.
What households, firms, and markets think future inflation will be, which can influence current pricing and wage setting.
Slow adjustment in prices or wages that lets shocks have real short-run effects.
A BEA price index built from household consumption in the national accounts, with weights that change over time.
A framework linking inflation pressure to slack, labor-market tightness, or the output gap.
A BLS price index tracking prices received by producers.
A price move concentrated in one part of the economy, such as energy, food, or shipping, rather than a broad inflation shift.
A period when inflation stays elevated while growth weakens and labor-market conditions soften.
A disruption to production costs, availability, or capacity that changes prices and output together.
Labor market
An estimate of the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation.
The pace at which wages are rising over time.
Policy and finance
A simple policy rule that links the interest-rate response to inflation and the output gap.
The extra yield investors require for holding longer-term bonds over expected short rates.
Models and projections
A move into a different macro state, such as a recession-risk regime or a more persistent inflation regime.
