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Macro by Mark
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ModelsEmpirical, structural, and theoretical routes.GlossaryFast definitions while you learn.
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Theory-Based Models

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Macro by Mark

U.S. macro data with release timing, boards, and macro context.

Public U.S. data from agencies and market feeds.

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Theory-Based Models

Phillips Curve

A reduced-form inflation-unemployment relationship used to study slack, inflation expectations, and supply disturbances.

Introductoryscatter trend
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Theory-Based Models

Proof

Route section

Read the derivation as a document, with the math typeset directly and the intermediate chains tucked behind expandable steps.

Sections

Setup and notationShort-run Phillips relationExpectations and shiftsComparative statics

Setup and notation

The route uses a reduced-form inflation relation around an anchored inflation level and a natural unemployment benchmark.

π=πe+ν−κ(u−un)\pi = \pi^e + \nu - \kappa(u - u^n)π=πe+ν−κ(u−un)

Short-run Phillips relation

Inflation rises when unemployment falls below the natural rate and falls when slack runs above it.

∂π∂u=−κ\frac{\partial \pi}{\partial u} = -\kappa∂u∂π​=−κ

Expectations and shifts

Changes in expected inflation or a supply shock shift the entire curve.

∂π∂πe=1\frac{\partial \pi}{\partial \pi^e} = 1∂πe∂π​=1
∂π∂ν=1\frac{\partial \pi}{\partial \nu} = 1∂ν∂π​=1

Comparative statics

The model’s message is directional: tighter labor markets raise inflation pressure, while cost shocks shift the whole relation upward.

π−πe−ν=−κ(u−un)\pi - \pi^e - \nu = -\kappa(u - u^n)π−πe−ν=−κ(u−un)

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Introductory

Phillips Curve

How does labor-market slack translate into inflation pressure?

laborinflationpolicy
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