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Macro by Mark
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OverviewThe flagship learning arc.ConceptsCore measures, terms, and mechanisms.PolicyFiscal, monetary, and transmission routes.
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ModelsEmpirical, structural, and theoretical routes.GlossaryFast definitions while you learn.
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Theory-Based Models

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Macro by Mark

U.S. macro data with release timing, boards, and macro context.

Public U.S. data from agencies and market feeds.

MarkJayson.com

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Theory-Based Models

Phillips Curve

A reduced-form inflation-unemployment relationship used to study slack, inflation expectations, and supply disturbances.

Introductoryscatter trend
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Theory-Based Models

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Route section

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Phillips Curve scenario

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Shock presets

Tighter labor market

Lower unemployment moves the economy up the curve.

Cost-push shock

Shifts the whole relationship upward.

Introductory

Current point

Inflation

2.68

Unemployment

5.60

Natural unemployment

6.00

Supply shock

0.00

Impact summary

At unemployment 5.6, the curve implies inflation near 2.68.

With little cost pressure, the main movement comes from the unemployment gap itself.