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Data-Driven Models
Data-Driven Models
Models
Start with an ARIMA baseline from uploaded data or provider-backed series, then move through review, model choice, evaluation, and forecast output.
Models / Route
Start with the live ARIMA baseline from uploaded data or live provider series, or open the empirical sandbox when you want the brief, editor, and diagnostics on one screen.
HelpARIMA runs from either a connected provider series or an uploaded dataset after review.
VAR, BVAR, Ridge, LASSO, and Ensemble stay visible as guided configuration lanes so the class choice is explicit without claiming full execution parity yet.
The sandbox adds a code-first side lane without replacing the guided empirical route or claiming remote notebook execution.
Execution status
The broader family stays visible as guided configuration lanes so class choice is explicit before full parity arrives.
No recent data-driven runs yet. Open the current route and the latest work will show up here.
Workflow entry
Entry paths and recent work
Start from a live macro series, an uploaded dataset, or the code-first sandbox, then move through review, model choice, evaluation, and forecast output. The guided path runs a live ARIMA baseline today, while the wider model menu stays visible so you can inspect deeper routes without pretending every class is already runnable.
Entry paths
3
Live baseline
ARIMA
Visible classes
6
Recent runs
Empirical runs now stay resumable through the workspace, so the latest baseline or forecast route stays one click away.
No empirical runs yet. Finish a baseline or forecast run and it will show up here.
Entry paths
Choose the shortest way into the live baseline, then move deeper only when the question needs it.
Stage a CSV first when the modeling frame lives outside the site registry.
Open pathUse the live registry path when you want a series that can move into the ARIMA baseline flow now.
Open pathUse the three-pane notebook-style sandbox when you want the brief, editor, and diagnostics on one screen.
Open pathModel classes
ARIMA
Live baselineOne-series baseline forecast built from historical persistence and differencing.
VAR
Guided routeInteracting series with lag structure and stability checks.
BVAR
Guided routeVAR structure with priors and shrinkage over a compact macro system.
RIDGE
Guided routeRegularized regression for broad feature packs with stable shrinkage.
LASSO
Guided routeSparse regression that can zero out weaker predictors.
ENSEMBLE
Guided routeCombines several empirical models into one scored baseline.