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OverviewThe flagship learning arc.ConceptsCore measures, terms, and mechanisms.PolicyFiscal, monetary, and transmission routes.

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SchoolsCompeting macro traditions.CompareLine up schools and assumptions.HistoryHow the field evolved.

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ModelsEmpirical, structural, and theoretical routes.GlossaryFast definitions while you learn.
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Macro by Mark
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Macro
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OverviewThe flagship learning arc.ConceptsCore measures, terms, and mechanisms.PolicyFiscal, monetary, and transmission routes.
Debate and context
SchoolsCompeting macro traditions.CompareLine up schools and assumptions.HistoryHow the field evolved.
Work with it
ModelsEmpirical, structural, and theoretical routes.GlossaryFast definitions while you learn.
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All libraryThe full tracked working set.GrowthOpen this indicator lane.Prices & InflationOpen this indicator lane.Labor MarketOpen this indicator lane.Monetary & Financial ConditionsOpen this indicator lane.Nowcasting & Leading IndicatorsOpen this indicator lane.
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Macro by Mark

U.S. macro data with release timing, boards, and macro context.

Public U.S. data from agencies and market feeds.

MarkJayson.com

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© 2026 Mark Jayson Martinez Farol

Models

New Keynesian Core

Sticky prices, inflation dynamics, and a Taylor rule make NK the workhorse for monetary-policy transmission and the cleanest first route for curated observables. The route stays structure-first: equilibrium conditions, shocks, policy rules, curated observables, then experiments.

Coming soonStructure-firstDSGE familyModels help

Models / Route

Coming soon

Structural route map

Use the route map to review the structure and planned readout while the interactive layer stays guided.

Help
OverviewRBCNKSOE-NKTANKHANK-liteFinancial Accelerator
Route notes

The route begins from the model template itself, with the observables layer arriving later in the workflow.

The NK route is a guided lab. It walks through observables, priors, and readout logic.

The output layer is for impulse responses, decomposition, and policy comparison, not for generic time-series diagnostics.

Loading DSGE route…

DSGE route

Structure before observables

New Keynesian estimation is the first serious observables route because sticky prices, inflation dynamics, and the Taylor rule connect directly to policy questions that reduced-form forecasts cannot answer on their own.

Data-Driven Models remain the cleaner home for unrestricted baseline prediction. Structural policy transmission, shock interpretation, and medium-run narrative carry more weight here.

Guided lab
Estimate with observablesDemo economyIndicator-based observables

Why this route exists

Sticky prices, inflation dynamics, and a Taylor rule make NK the workhorse for monetary-policy transmission and the cleanest first route for curated observables.

Nominal rigidities and policy credibility sit at the center here, with the real-shock benchmark in the background.

Diagnostics that lead

Determinacy

Blanchard-Kahn style existence and uniqueness checks lead the route.

Prior versus posterior

The estimation layer keeps visible how the observable bundle moves the parameter beliefs.

Filtered shocks and states

Latent states and shock decomposition are central outputs, not appendix material.

Forecast comparison

The estimated route stays strongest when it remains in conversation with the data-driven baseline.

ACF, PACF, ADF, Ljung-Box, and ARCH LM belong mainly to the Data-Driven Models lane, not at the center of this route.

Policy experiments

Hawkish versus dovish Taylor-rule comparison

Demand, cost-push, and monetary shock comparisons

Scenario comparison against data-driven forecasts

Expected outputs

Impulse responsesPosterior summariesFiltered shocks and latent statesVariance and historical decompositionForecast density and model comparison

Guided estimation lab

The route narrows the structural story in four passes, keeping each layer visible before the next one enters.

Why this step matters

The route begins with structure so the observables never become the model.

Stage 1

Template and data mode

The small closed-economy NK core fixes the structural question first. The data mode only decides whether that structure is learned through a demo economy or disciplined by a curated observable bundle.

Template and data mode

Template

Small closed-economy New Keynesian template

The lab stays compact on purpose. Inflation, activity, and the policy rate carry the measurement burden first; richer observables only enter after the baseline system stays interpretable.

Data mode

Estimation logic

Curated observables discipline the model. They do not turn DSGE into a raw series picker or a reduced-form forecast surface.

Structural stance

Indicator-based observablesCompact policy pack
Trend growth: 1.9%
Inflation target: 2.0%
Steady nominal rate: 4.0%
Neutral real rate: 2.0%

Current read

The curated observable route keeps the same NK structure and only changes how the model is confronted with data.

Prior read

Policy rule

Balanced

Inflation-response strength inside the Taylor rule.

Nominal rigidity

Moderate

How slowly price adjustment passes through the Phillips block.

Rate smoothing

Measured

How quickly the policy rate moves toward the rule target.

Shock separation

Tight overlap

How distinct demand and cost-push persistence remain.